Who would have thought that there would come a day when Chad would begin to move away from France and seek diplomatic relations with Russia, one of the greatest rivals of the West? It’s particularly surprising because France and other countries in the West have maintained that Chad remains a key Western ally in Africa amidst the growing anti-french and anti-western sentiments that are spreading across the continent. In addition, the Chadian Presidency beginning with late President Idriss Deby who ruled Chad for 38 years, has not shied away from its position as an important ally of France and has used France’s military forces time and time again to ensure its continued rule. So, how come, despite the assurance that Chad has the backing of France and countries of the West such as the USA, Chad’s President Mahamat Deby flew to Moscow on January 24th for an exclusive meeting with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin? Why is Chad seeking diplomatic relations with Russia amidst pressure from the West and what does it mean for France? Let’s find out in this video.

Since its Independence, Chad has been the lynchpin of France’s geopolitical strategy in central Africa. Its strategic location has made it the perfect place for France to monitor its former colonies which are important to its status as one of the top-developed countries in the world. Chad has been a privileged arena for French military interventions and acts as a barometer of French commitment to its African clients. For instance, in the 60s and 70s, France intervened in support of Chadian government forces that were battling against the Frolinat. In 1982 Hissene Habré came to power with French support. When Idriss Deby Overthrew Habre to take over power, France did not interfere, instead, they supported him and continued to support him for 38 years until his death. France was also responsible for helping his son who is now the current president of Chad to take over power through a military coup after the death of his father. So, looking through the history of Chad since its independence, one constant thing is France’s presence and its interventions. The reason for this is that France attaches a great deal of importance to Chad because of its strategic location, from where it monitors the Sahel and Sahara region and dispatches troops for interventions throughout the region. Chad’s status as an important ally of France further increased after the wave of coups spread across the Sahel, hitting Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali, and leading to the expulsion of French troops from these countries.

This expulsion of French troops made Chad the last country in the region to host French troops and thus increased its importance because French deployment in Chad has helped to project France’s military power in the Sahel and also paint the image that France was a leading actor in the continent. What this means is that France no longer has much leverage over Chad and the Chadian government can do whatever it likes including doing the opposite of what France wants. This showed in early 2022 when France insisted that President Deby exclude himself from running for president and appoint Succès Masra as prime minister. However, Deby refused and there was nothing France could do about it because there was the threat of Chad kicking French forces out of the country and that is something that France wanted to avoid at all costs. In addition, Chad’s strategic importance to France currently means that if France wants to stay in Chad, it will have to support Chad no matter what.

In addition to all these, just like in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, anti-French sentiment has started to spread in Chad. There is currently a growing demand not just among Chad citizens but also among Chad political elites for French troops to withdraw completely from the country. A coalition of activists, including the Wakit Tamma movement, announced that it will begin staging protests if France did not start withdrawing its troops by the end of 2023. These activist and political elites point out France double standards in backing an unconstitutional takeover by the President after his fathers death and how in 2019 France released deadly airstrikes on rebels, meanwhile their purpose in Chad was supposedly to fight terrorist. This means that resentment against French forces might make it easy for opposition forces within the regime to mobilize against President Deby and whoever will come in, will definitely not be a friend of the French.

So, putting all these in context, we can see a probably reason why President Chad had the guts to fly to Moscow to have an exclusive meeting with President Putin. On January 24th, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Chadian Transitional President Mahamat Idriss Deby, on his official visit to Moscow. President Deby’s visit to Russia marks the second trip by any Chadian President since it gained independence from France and the first official visit to Moscow by a Chadian leader in 56 years. However, this doesn’t mean that Chad had completely cut off relations with Russia before now. During the last Russia-Africa summit, Chad’s President was supposed to attend the summit but because of the pressure from the West, he had to be represented by Foreign Minister Mahamat Saleh Annadif. Also, during the first Russia-Africa summit in 2019, President Deby’s father attended the summit as Chad’s head of state. Now, this recent meeting between President Deby and President Putin addressed the prospects for further developing Russian-Chadian relations in various fields as well as regional and international issues. According to a transcript published on the Kremlin website, Putin said that the two countries had “great opportunities to develop our bilateral ties”, and that Moscow would double the quota for Chadian students studying at Russian universities.

One of the major topics of discussion was the issue of security. Chad is currently experiencing political instability and insecurity not just internally but externally. Aside from the insecurity caused by jihadists, the Chadian government is faced with disruption from multiple rebel groups as well as opposition parties who may step up at any time to take over power from the current administration. While France is currently the key guarantor of stability in the country, the Chadian government has decided not to depend only on France and seek other relations with other countries including Russia that will help to tackle the insecurity and instability. According to an expert, Chad has not yet considered expelling the [local] French military [contingent] from the country and is unlikely to do so, but the country is interested in establishing military cooperation with Moscow, hence the reason for the visit. Aside from security, the two leaders also discussed about developing trade and economic ties. According to President Vladimir Putin said, “A rather large set of documents is being prepared that will allow [us] to strengthen the legal framework.” So far, economic relations between Russia and Chad have been minimal, even by the standards of Russia-Africa cooperation. But with this meeting, that will begin to change. Chad’s agricultural sector has demand for Russian fertilizers, and the country needs vaccines and food. In addition, Chad is interested in Russian investments in the fuel and energy complex.

Chad’s meeting with Russia indicates a gradual strategic shift from France. The Presidency of Chad has realized that it can no longer depend solely on France because of the growing anti-French sentiments and so, even though it may not kick out the French troops, there is a need to diversify relations not just with Russia but also with other countries. According to an expert, by visiting Moscow, Mahamat Deby was seeking to bolster his own authority domestically, as pro-Russian sentiments are strong in Chadian society. Deby is showing that he is not a French puppet and that he is developing relationships with alternative partners, the expert added. This statement is very correct because lots of political elites who have the power to remove President Deby from power are angry about the continued presence of France in the country. Somehow, the president is using his visit to Moscow to consolidate his stay in power.

Now, what does this mean for France? One thing is sure, this meeting is only the beginning of Chad’s current diplomatic relationship with Russia and France is not happy with this meeting between a country that is its key ally in the Sahel and Russia, a rival of the West. But can France do anything about it? The answer is No. As we said earlier, Chad is very important to France because it is the only country in the Sahel that still houses French troops. So, given the fact that there is a growing anti-French sentiment in Chad, France would not want to do anything that would turn the government against it. This means that France would have to support the decision of the Chadian government to partner with Russia and look the other way if it wants to remain in the country. Russia itself doesn’t have a problem with France being in any African country because it is pursuing a rather flexible policy in Africa. This is why most African country wants to partner with Russia.

While Chad currently does not intend to get rid of the French troops on its soil, the need for them may gradually disappear once Chad’s foreign relations diversify to include China, Russia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. France’s footprint in Africa has indeed begun to fade. If Chad does end up kicking French troops out of its country, France’s hold on countries in the Sahel will be broken completely and these countries will be free.

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