On the outside, Chad may look relatively stable compared to its fellow neighbors in the Sahel but in truth, Chad as someone recently described it is a pressure cooker ready to explode. A lot of things have been going on in this Sahel country since Mahamat Derby, the son of the late Idriss Derby, took over power in April 2021. Interestingly, while Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali received serious condemnation and stringent sanctions from the international community because of the coup which occurred in their countries, nothing of such happened in Chad even though the President also came into power through a coup. In fact, President Macron openly supported the coup in Chad saying that it was necessary because of security reasons. Meanwhile, we all know it’s because France doesn’t want to lose its key ally in the Sahel after being kicked out of Mali. But, that’s not our interest in today’s video. Our focus is on Chad and as we said earlier, a lot of things have been happening in the country that make it highly possible that another coup may occur any time soon in the country. What has been happening in Chad and why is it possible that another coup may occur in the country? Let’s find out.

Now, Chad has been ruled by Mahamat Idriss Déby since April 2021, when his father, Idriss Déby, was killed on the battlefield by rebels. Idriss Derby seized power in an armed rebellion in 1990 and went on to rule for the next 30 years until he was killed by the rebels. However, before his death, Idriss had already won an election which would have enabled him rule for a sixth term but his untimely death ended that ambition and so according to Chad’s Constitution, the speaker of the parliament should become the interim president upon the death of an incumbent. But that didn’t happen. Instead after presiding, over the funeral of the late Idriss Derby, French President Emanuel Macron, quickly aided the Chad military to install Mahamat Deby, the son of Idriss Deby, as the interim president of Chad. This is not surprising because, it was the only way for France to continue to maintain its relation with Chad. The fact that it was undemocratic and unconstitutional didn’t matter to France. Again, it’s not surprising because France has has long backed dictators in Chad in exchange for Chadian soldiers fighting alongside France in the region and for French bases in the country. That support has extended to French jets bombing rebel columns. A good example was in 2019, upon the request of Idriss Deby, the French government deployed seven jet fighters that annihilated and armed convoy during four days of strikes. This is the singular reason, Idriss Deby was able to rule for so long.

Now, when Mahamat Deby came into power, tensions between Deby government and opposition parties began to brew but the country was still relatively calm. However things began to change. When he first came into power, Mahamat promised to an 18-month transition to elections and that he would not stand in the poll. However, in October 2022 he extended the transition for another two years and declared that he was eligible to run after all. This led to an escalation of the already brewing tensions between the opposition parties and the military government. The outraged opposition took to the streets to contest the decision made by Deby on October 20, 2022 in the capital N’Djamena, and other towns and cities across the country, raising slogans against the military junta, and its backer, France. In response, Chad’s security forces gunned down at least 128 people in a day and locked up hundreds more. As a result, October 20th is now referred to as Black Thursday in Chad. Aside from the actions of the Chadian government on Black Thursday, several opposition parties were shut down. Yet, the Uniter Nations, France and the international community continues to support Deby government. If something like this were to happen in Burkina Faso and Mali, they would be the first to throw stones and condemn the government. How double standard can they be?

Now, fast forward to December 2023, when in preparation for the upcoming elections in 2024, the Chadian government decided to draft a new Constitution which entrenches a unitary system of government. This again, is a bone of contention between the government and opposition parties. Those opposing the constitution states that, the unitary system of government which has been in place since Independence, grants too much power to the central government and so a federal system is better for Chad. They also stated that replacing the unitary system with a federal system of government would allow for progressive democracy and spur economic development. However, despite the protest by the opposition party, its unlikely that the constitution would change. In fact, after protest carried out by one opposition party, Les Transformateurs, the Chadian government banned the party and arrested majority of it’s members. Undoubtedly as some experts have confirmed, the new constitution is part of Mahamats plan to stay longer in power just like his father. And like his father, the younger Deby has chosen to repress his opposition to ensure that he does stay in power for a long time.

However, there still remains opposition to his government from multiple rebel groups who are certainly not happy with the current constitution and this brings us to another point. When Idriss Deby died in 2021, his son, Mahamat was not the the unanimous choice to take over when his father died. Chad has been ruled by an elite tribe called the Zaghawa from the east. Surprisinly, this tribe only a tiny proportion of Chad’s population, meaning they are a minority. Yet they have been the rulers of Chad for a very long time. Now, Mahamat is not Zaghawa, causing some jitters among the elite tribe. He also have half brothers who may have their own presidential aspirations. Aside from this, Mahamat has recently taken some decision which has not gone down well with the ruling tribe. Although Chad is supposedly neutral in the ongoing Sudan war, President Déby has however backed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) by allowing the United Arab Emirates to fly in weapons to the RSF, an airport in Amdjarass, the Déby family’s home town, in exchange for financial support. This decision has angered Chad’s Zaghawa generals, who oppose the Emirati effort to arm the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia in the ongoing war. In fact, the strongest among Chad’s ruling elite who have close ties with Zaghawa rebel groups in Sudan’s Darfur region declared war on the RSF in mid-November.
So, the fact that President Deby is seemingly backing the RSF, would possibly divide the army and the ruling tribe.

In addition to this, discussions with Russia over the use of private military companies to help Déby subdue northern rebels and begin to exploit significant gold reserves in the Tibetsi mountain range near the country’s border with Libya have further stoked the ire of the country’s generals, who take pride in their reputation as the region’s most effective fighters. These generals bristle at the notion of needing outside assistance like their Malian and Burkinabe neighbors. All these has made some experts to say that Mahamat Deby may not last a long time in leadership because he faces a lot of threat internally. First from opposition parties, then rebel groups and finally among the elite ruling class. It’s also very possible that rebels could invade from abroad to overthrow Mr Déby afterall was insurgents from Libya who killed his father in 2021. Early last year a leaked American intelligence cables suggested that Wagner mercenaries were helping southern Chadian rebels in the Central African Republic in yet another plot to topple Mr Déby.

All these threats to his government may explain why President Deby has been looking for new ways to consolidate his power. In November Hungary’s parliament approved the deployment of up to 200 soldiers to Chad, supposedly to counter terrorism and illegal migration. However, some experts believe that this deployment doesn’t have anything to do with countering terrorism. Instead it’s about helping Déby secure gold fields in the restive north or perhaps even to protect him from a coup. President Deby has also maintained his relationship with France and since Chad is France’s last ally in a vast and volatile region, France would undoubtedly support Deby ambition to stay in power.

Yet another event that is hovering over Chad and has the potential to lead to a coup is the prospect of blowback from Sudan’s civil war. The end of the war in Sudan could bring problems for Chad because Many RSF fighters have ties to Chad and axes to grind, despite the backing of President Deby. If the RSF defeat Sudan’s official army, some of its men could try to settle scores in Chad. This means they would possibly go after refugees or fighters who have fled across the border. However, if the RSF lose, large numbers of armed fighters could flood into Chad and may head straight for N’Djamena to seize power. All these brewing tensions and internal strife has led to rumours of an impending military coup which is highly possible. One way or another Chad is on the tip of a ledge. Any little push and that mirage of stability present in the country would evaporate. It remains to be seen who will be responsible for that push. Would it be President Deby himself, the Zaghawa elites who are not happy with him, the armed rebels within and outside Chad or the Opposition Parties?

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