After the coup occurred in Niger in July 2023, the United States was faced with uncertainty on whether or not they would be told to leave by the military junta of Niger. However, even after the French forces were told to leave the country and the United States acknowledged that the military takeover in Niger was a coup, the United States military forces are still in Niger. But, even though the US forces are still in Niger, their bases have not been fully operational. The reason for this is because immediately the US labeled the takeover in Niger as a coup, they were required by law to suspend security operations and cut developmental aid to Niger which can not be resumed until democracy is restored. But, as we said in one of our videos, and as stated by an official of the United States, the Pentagon’s goal is to maintain a military presence in Niger “for as long as possible,” So, even though the United States has suspended security operations in Niger, one thing is sure they would not want to pack out of Niger because they have interests in the country. It’s for this reason that they are scrambling to revive the US Air Base 201 which has stopped operating since the military came into power.

The U.S. Air Base 201 is situated on a barren swath of land in the Sahara, far from public sight, in the remote city of Agadez, Niger. Though owned by the Niger military, the base was built and paid for by the United States and operated by the US military as a drone base. Regarded as a vital military asset and the biggest construction job Air Force engineers ever undertook alone, the U.S. Air Base 201 has been mostly idle since a coup in July 2023. Most of the drones that once monitored jihadist activities and carried out intelligence missions have been grounded. The majority of the soldiers have also been sitting idly in the $110 million base, epitomizing the uncertain future of the United States’ counterterrorism efforts in West Africa.

As the military junta continues to strengthen its grip on power and shows no sign of restoring power back to Mohammed Bazoom, the United States is now faced with new challenges in protecting its interest in Niger. Chief among them is how to resume operations at the US Air Base 201. This will be quite challenging however because they have already recognized the takeover as a coup and they cannot resume security operations because the military junta of Niger, General Tiani has shown no sign of reinstating Bazoom into power. This means the only way they can resume operations is to cooperate with the military junta but the question is “Are they that desperate to do so? Further complicating the matter, European countries that have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in aid are divided on what to do next, seeing that the military junta of Niger plans on staying in power. While some like the European Union and France remain resolute in their stance of refusing to acknowledge the military junta and imposing sanctions on Niger, several others who had previously condemned the coup have recently indicated that they are willing to normalize relations with Niger’s military junta. These European countries may be now willing to relate with the junta because they feel that they have more to lose, given that the military junta has moved on to form alliances with African and non-European countries. The United States is thus in a dilemma.

In addition to this, the United States is also faced with the looming threat of Russia’s expanding influence in the Sahel and Africa. With the spread of anti-French sentiments and the exit of the French forces from Niger, Russia has become the preferred security partner of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, countries all faced with severe insecurity. These three countries are currently led by military governments and have vowed to strengthen cooperation under a new alliance known as the Alliance of the Sahel States. One way they have strengthened their security is by partnering with Russia. In fact, Russia has signed several defense and economic agreements with countries in the Sahel including Niger. These agreements have further strengthened the presence of Russia which is seen as a more reliable and strategic partner than Europe and Western countries. The United States recognizes this and they certainly are not happy about it. Reviving the U.S. Air Base 201 is one way they believe that they can counter the presence of Russia in Africa.

However, as Daniel Eizsnga, a research fellow at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, stated, one thing the United States should understand is that “Russia is going to be there, that is in the Sahel, no matter what, and regardless of whether the United States is at the table or not. Now, one of the ways the United States is trying to solve its dilemma is by trying to establish new drone bases in several coastal West African countries as backups to the base in Niger. According to a U.S. military official, talks are still in the early stages with several West African countries. If these West African countries agree, it would mean that the number of U.S. military bases in Africa would further increase which means that the U.S. would have more forces protecting its interest in Africa. This development would certainly be good for the United States but would it be good for Africa?

Well, no decision has been made yet to set up bases in those West African countries because Washington is currently preoccupied with the crisis in Gaza and Ukraine. Besides that, it is not certain whether those African countries would agree given that in recent times there has been a fall in relations between African and Western countries. Meanwhile, Aneliese Bernard, a former State Department adviser who worked in Niger in the late 2010s, has said that there have been talks to move special forces and drive operations out of Niger to probably Ghana and Ivory Coast. So, that means that there is also a possibility of U.S. forces leaving Niger. Now, while some may regard this as a welcome development if it does happen, some other analysts believe that Niger should patch things up with the United States so that aid and security money that has been previously suspended will start flowing again. But would that be beneficial for the Niger economy? Would I not continue the same cycle of dependency on the West?

While the people of Niger may be relatively comfortable with the U.S. presence in their country as compared to France, their former colonizers, Niger and the United States still have a long way to go in terms of relations. According to the U.S. Africa Command interactions between the United States military and Niger junta leaders are currently limited to periodic phone calls between General Micheal Langley, the head of the U.s Africa Command and Brig. Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, the junta’s defence chief. For now, that leaves the U.S. Air Base 201, which once served as a broader launchpad for monitoring activities of armed groups and gathering intelligence in the Sahel, in limbo. Though in limbo, the U.S. military is still flying unarmed drone surveillance missions to protect its troops posted in Niamey and Agadez. And they are supposedly under a duty to warn obligation which means any threat they detect during their missions will be passed along to the Niger army to deal with. Well, that’s what they say but it’s very possible that these unarmed drone missions could also be spying and gathering intelligence not related to terrorist activities, intelligence that would be beneficial to the United States and not Africa.

Meanwhile, despite the fact that the law states that security operations with Niger should be suspended until they restore democratic order, the U.S. diplomats have signaled that they would like to mend relations with the junta and resume security operations at Air Base 201. According to the new U.S. ambassador to Niger, Kathleen FitzGibbon, one of Washington’s top African specialists who recently submitted her credentials to the Niger government, the United States intended to resume security and development cooperation. But how they would achieve this is not real care because the fact is Bazoom will not be restored to power. The only way this would work is if the military government announced a timeline for a transition to civilian rule. However, currently, the military leaders of Niger have refused to announce a timeline or release Bazoom who is still in their custody.

While the United States is still contemplating what to do, some European countries have said that they are ready to move on with or without the deposed President Mohammed Bazoom. In a meeting in December 2023, with officials from Niger in Niamey, the German defense minister vowed to resume cooperation in 2024. Other countries including Italy and Spain are also willing to engage with the Niger military junta, moving away from France which is currently isolated on its stance towards the military leaders.

Do you think that the U.S. would cooperate with the military junta? Let us know in the comment section below. Don’t forget to like, subscribe and share this video.