Angola and China Strike A Deal To Completely Wipe Out The West.

In 2002, after the end of the 27-year-long civil war in Angola, the only country willing to come to the aid of Angola was China. In fact, the West considered Angola as a risky and uncertain investment. But, China, which at the time needed oil for its economy saw potential and opportunities in the oil-rich Angola and went ahead to form a partnership with the country in which China would find infrastructures and in return would have access to its oil. This partnership became known as the Angola model and China began to use it for other African countries because it was successful and led to Angola becoming Africa’s biggest destination for Chinese capital. In fact, since 2002, Angola has received 45 billion dollars from China which is more than a quarter of China’s total lending to other African countries combined. And, this fund went to the construction of massive projects from airports, housing, and roads to hydropower stations such as the 4.1 billion dollar Caculo Cabaca hydropower station. In fact, it can rightly be said that China is instrumental to the infrastructure that can be seen in Angola today.

So, everything was going well but you see, Angola like every other oil-rich African country is completely dependent on oil as a source of its revenue and exports, and seventy percent of this oil is exported to China in the form of debt repayments and so when oil prices began to fall as it did in 2024, it pushed the country into an economic recession and a debt crisis which it is currently trying hard to emerge from. So, those people always saying that China has an ulterior motive in Africa because most African countries are indebted to them and that China is no different from the West because they are also interested in African resources do not know what they are saying because the fact is China is just a country like Angola and you cannot expect it to invest in the country without getting anything in return. And, the reason why African countries are in so much debt to China is not because China deliberately made it so but because most African countries are dependent on primary commodities like oil which are vulnerable to price shocks in the international market which inadvertently makes them struggle to generate revenue and pay their debts. So, we can rightly say that the problem lies with African countries and not with China which has always upheld its side of the deal.

But, that’s beside the point. The point is for Angola after oil prices fell and the country struggled to pay back to China, China became cautious of lending more money to the country which it had every right to do so because logically it doesn’t make sense to keep lending money to someone who you are not sure can pay you back. And so, after the Covid-19 pandemic and Western isolation of China, the loans from China to Angola kind of dried up as China had to look for other partners from the Middle East to solve its oil needs. What this meant was that Angola now had a vacuum and it seemed that the United States was interested in filling that vacuum but could it be trusted?

In December 2023, news flying around the media revealed that the United States is ready to invest more than 2 billion dollars in Angola, presenting itself as a better alternative to China. According to President Joe Biden, the US had committed more than one billion dollars in 2023 to fund solar power, bridges, and internet infrastructure and it is also offering an additional one billion dollars to fund the strategically important Lobito Corridor, running from Zambia to the Angolan coast via the Democratic Republic of Congo. The U.S. is also working with the European Union to construct a new 800 km rail line between Angola and Zambia as it eyes critical minerals such as cobalt and copper from the DRC and Zambia for its green energy transition, including the electric car industry. According to President Joe Biden, this rail line is the first of its kind in Africa and will create jobs and connect markets for generations to come.

However, as fantastic as this may sound, the question is can the U.S. and the West be trusted? Unlike China, which went into a partnership with Angola for mutual interests, the major reason the United States decided to invest in Angola is because it wants to counter China’s influence in the country. The U.S. investment in Angola is part of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, a plan launched by the G7 in 2022 with the aim of providing US$600 billion by 2027 to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Simply put, President Bidem wants to use Angola as a test case for US ambitions to counter Chinese influence in Africa, where Beijing has funded many mega projects. Doesn’t this mean that the US and the West want to make Angola and by extension, other African countries continue to depend on them? When China was investing in Africa there was no condition attached to such investment and neither did China state that they have to be the only partners to these African countries. However, it’s very clear that the U.S. investment is based on the condition that it will be the only partner in Angola and it’s also very sure that with this investment the United States would also try to influence other aspects of Angola including its politics. So, again can the U.S. be trusted?

The reason why Angola decided to receive the US was because the government needed to diversify the economy and shift away from dependency on oil and because lending from China ended, the US thought that it had begun to successfully edge out China from Angola. However, recently, Angola decided to resume its partnership with China, sending a huge blow to the U.S. And, this time instead of focusing on a partnership based on oil, China has decided to help Angola move beyond dependency on oil and diversify its economy. According to Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Chinese government will support Chinese companies that invest in Angola’s agriculture and manufacturing sectors and this will help Angola to achieve agricultural modernization, industrialization, and economic diversification. Angola is blessed with plentiful reserves of base metals and ample agricultural resources, such as sugarcane, coffee, cotton, and livestock, but they have been neglected compared to oil. However, this agreement with China is about to change everything.

The Chinese President made this known during a visit by Angolan President Jao Lourenco to the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing and it follows Angola’s withdrawal from OPEC. The two Presidents also agreed to upgrade bilateral ties to the level of comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, allowing for greater trade and investment.

Unlike the United States whose reason for investing in Angola is to counter China’s influence in the country, China’s motive is to help improve the Angolan economy so that Angola can pay back its debt of $21 billion which makes a lot more sense. In December 2023, the same month, the U.S. invested one billion dollars in Angola, China, and Angola signed an investment protection agreement as well as a separate agreement that ensures that Angola companies have tariff-free access to China’s massive consumer market across 98% of goods. So, this means that the United States’ goal of countering China’s influence in Angola and by extension Africa has been dashed because this new approach by China which is called the Hunan model, is not only applicable to Angola but also to other African countries where China has made massive investment.

As opposed to the Angola model, the Hunan model is part of China’s vision 2035 for China-Africa cooperation which pushes for medical cooperation, poverty reduction, agricultural development, digital innovation, and green development. The delivery of these goals happens under the umbrella of the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo and a pilot zone for in-depth China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation, both of which are centered in the Hunan province in China. The Hunan model focuses on agriculture, heavy industry equipment, and transport such as electric automobiles and trains. It also seeks to support more efficient trade between African countries and China and so new trade passageways by rail, river, air, and ocean are being forged to better connect Hunan with African countries. There are also efforts to tackle issues of access to foreign exchange and foster greater use of local currencies. Currently, international trade is being conducted with the dollar but the dollar has put a lot of pressure on local currencies further damaging local economies. However, the Hunan model is currently pushing for trade to be conducted in local currencies which would help to strengthen the currencies and by extension the economy.

Ultimately, China’s Hunan agenda will mean different things for different African countries and will evolve over time but one thing is clear, it’s a better alternative to the West agenda for Africa.

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